As my ranger legs it, he shoots an arrow and hits one of the goblins, I suspect that if my part time crossbowmen can critically take them on his own, they won't be much match for my marksdwarves and my secret weapon:
Kill the elves! they are expendable. The ambushes take down a siege mechanic and one of my top metalsmithers, the elves scatter, some are committed to getting into the fortress, the rest turn and run.
A THIRD ambush at the very south, they chase the lone ranger who is out of bolts and running for his life.
The migrant axedwarf bravely throws her life away standing on the battlements doing nothing of note. Another dies because he ran too far away from his station (admittedly my fault for not changing the option).
Two of the goblin ambush teams are held off with one left at the south of the map regrouping for another assault. After killing another two marksdwarves, the last 6 remaining goblins leave peacefully (which is a good job as only one marksdwarf was still alive). There's a lot of dead dwarves. The elves didn't survive either.